Week 1 2025 · August 29, 2025
Western Illinois at Illinois, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Western Illinois 52–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Western Illinois Leathernecks | 3 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Illinois about even · 0 Western Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Illinois wins 0, Illinois wins 10.
- 1 WIU 17 ILL 31
- 2 WIU 3 ILL 26
- 3 WIU 0 ILL 27
- 4 WIU 3 ILL 34
- 5 WIU 0 ILL 34
- 6 WIU 6 ILL 42
- 7 WIU 6 ILL 45
- 8 WIU 7 ILL 49
- 9 WIU 3 ILL 49
- 10 WIU 6 ILL 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Illinois wins 0% of them, Illinois 100%. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 49.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Illinois by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Illinois by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Western Illinois by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 95.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Olano, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- D. Olano, 28 yds blocked · 91% expected
- A. Chadha, 20 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Western Illinois 8 for 59 yards, Illinois 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:34 | Pass Interference on Western Illinois, 15 yards | 0% ILL +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:37 | False Start on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:10 | Illegal Formation on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:29 | Personal Foul on Western Illinois, 15 yards | 0% ILL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:01 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | 0% WIU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% WIU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Illegal Formation on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.1 pts |
| Q3 7:16 | False Start on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:12 | Personal Foul on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% WIU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 2:27 | False Start on Western Illinois, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:08 | Offside on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:12 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% WIU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:25 | Delay of Game on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:00 | Western Illinois converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% WIU | WIU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:03 | Western Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% ILL | WIU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 9:39 | Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:19 | Illinois converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +0% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:36 | Western Illinois fumbled and Illinois recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% ILL | WIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:48 | Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 2:46 | Western Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% ILL | WIU: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 0:00 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Illinois 0% · Illinois 100%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 49
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 42.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Illinois 0% · Illinois 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Western Illinois · 
Illinois
More from Week 1 2025
- Nebraska vs Cincinnati NEB 20–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas at Ohio State OSU 14–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Indiana IU 27–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Northwestern at Tulane TULN 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Maryland MD 39–7 · replay 68% for the winner
- Utah at UCLA UTAH 43–10 · replay 72% for the winner
- Ohio at Rutgers RUTG 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- UT Martin at Oklahoma State OKST 27–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan State MSU 23–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- New Mexico at Michigan MICH 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- UAlbany at Iowa IOWA 34–7 · replay 93% for the winner
- Colorado State at Washington WASH 38–21 · replay 96% for the winner