College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Florida International vs Delaware prediction and pick
Our Florida International Panthers at Delaware Blue Hens pick: Delaware by 3.6, 58% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Delaware by 3.6Florida International win 42%Delaware win 58%5649423528211470714212835424956← Florida International win byDelaware win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Florida International win
41.5%
Delaware win
58.5%
Middle 50%: Florida International by 7 to Delaware by 15
50%
Middle 90%: Florida International by 24 to Delaware by 32
90%
Middle 95%: Florida International by 30 to Delaware by 37
95%
Exactly Delaware by 3
6.6%
Exactly Florida International by 3
6.1%
Exactly Delaware by 7
5.2%
Exactly Florida International by 7
4.4%
Exactly Delaware by 14
3.5%
P50
Half of games like this end between Florida International by 7 and Delaware by 15.
P90
9 in 10 between Florida International by 24 and Delaware by 32.
P95
19 in 20 between Florida International by 30 and Delaware by 37.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Florida International vs Delaware: questions and answers
Who will win Florida International vs Delaware?
Our forecast picks Delaware, with 58% to win; Florida International win 42% of the time.
What’s the spread for Florida International vs Delaware?
Our spread: Delaware −3.6. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Florida International vs Delaware?
Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 3:00 pm ET, at Delaware Stadium.
Florida International at 
Delaware
