College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
New Mexico State vs Missouri State prediction and pick
Our New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears pick: Missouri State by 6.3, 65% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Missouri State by 6.3New Mexico State win 35%Missouri State win 65%5649423528211470714212835424956← New Mexico State win byMissouri State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
New Mexico State win
35.4%
Missouri State win
64.6%
Middle 50%: New Mexico State by 5 to Missouri State by 18
50%
Middle 90%: New Mexico State by 21 to Missouri State by 34
90%
Middle 95%: New Mexico State by 27 to Missouri State by 39
95%
Exactly Missouri State by 3
6.4%
Exactly New Mexico State by 3
5.7%
Exactly Missouri State by 7
5.3%
Exactly New Mexico State by 7
3.9%
Exactly Missouri State by 14
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between New Mexico State by 5 and Missouri State by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between New Mexico State by 21 and Missouri State by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between New Mexico State by 27 and Missouri State by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State: questions and answers
Who will win New Mexico State vs Missouri State?
Our forecast picks Missouri State, with 65% to win; New Mexico State win 35% of the time.
What’s the spread for New Mexico State vs Missouri State?
Our spread: Missouri State −6.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is New Mexico State vs Missouri State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 3:00 pm ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
New Mexico State at 
Missouri State
