Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Washington at Michigan, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Washington 24–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Washington Huskies | 7 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Michigan about even · −10 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington wins 1, Michigan wins 9.
- 1 WASH 19 MICH 13
- 2 WASH 24 MICH 27
- 3 WASH 14 MICH 20
- 4 WASH 14 MICH 23
- 5 WASH 13 MICH 26
- 6 WASH 12 MICH 29
- 7 WASH 21 MICH 41
- 8 WASH 7 MICH 30
- 9 WASH 17 MICH 45
- 10 WASH 0 MICH 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington wins 10% of them, Michigan 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 52.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Gross, 36 yds missed · 78% expected
- D. Zvada, 48 yds missed · 62% expected
- D. Zvada, 26 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Washington 4 for 23 yards, Michigan 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:41 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:03 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | +2% WASH +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:34 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:41 | False Start on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:17 | Ineligible Downfield on Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% WASH +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:37 | Holding on Washington, 8 yards | +4% MICH +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:14 | Delay of Game on Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | 0% WASH +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:56 | Michigan was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +8% WASH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:20 | G. Gross missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +6% MICH | WASH: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:13 | Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% WASH | WASH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:17 | Ineligible Downfield on Michigan, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% WASH | WASH: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:58 | Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% MICH | MICH: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 8:22 | Michigan was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +6% WASH | MICH: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 3:48 | Washington was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% MICH | WASH: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:04 | Michigan converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 0% · Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 17
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 18.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 10% · Michigan 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Washington · 
Michigan
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Maryland at UCLA UCLA 20–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Nebraska at Minnesota MINN 24–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Penn State at Iowa IOWA 25–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oregon at Rutgers ORE 56–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Michigan State at Indiana IU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner