luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2025 · August 30, 2025

Eastern Kentucky at Louisville, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?

Louisville beat Eastern Kentucky 51–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Louisville was a 99% favorite.

Final

Eastern Kentucky Colonels 17
Louisville Cardinals 51

August 30, 2025 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −37.5

Luck index 0 Louisville about even · 0 Eastern Kentucky

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eastern Kentucky wins 0, Louisville wins 10.

  1. 1 EKU 0 LOU 24
  2. 2 EKU 7 LOU 37
  3. 3 EKU 0 LOU 34
  4. 4 EKU 0 LOU 38
  5. 5 EKU 3 LOU 44
  6. 6 EKU 3 LOU 47
  7. 7 EKU 0 LOU 48
  8. 8 EKU 0 LOU 51
  9. 9 EKU 0 LOU 55
  10. 10 EKU 0 LOU 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eastern Kentucky wins 0% of them, Louisville 100%. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eastern Kentucky by 17+0.0%
Eastern Kentucky by 9–160.0%
Eastern Kentucky by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Louisville by 1–80.4%
Louisville by 9–161.4%
Louisville by 17+98.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to Louisville: the final margin was Louisville by 34, without the luck Louisville by 27.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Ranvier, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Flabiano, 38 yds made · 76% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eastern Kentucky 8 for 51 yards, Louisville 8 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:11 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% EKU +2.7 pts
Q1 9:40 Personal Foul on Louisville, 11 yards 0% EKU +0.7 pts
Q1 6:30 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +1.0 pts
Q1 1:32 Pass Interference on Eastern Kentucky, 10 yards 0% LOU +1.3 pts
Q2 10:57 Illegal Block on Eastern Kentucky, 7 yards 0% LOU +0.4 pts
Q2 10:57 Delay of Game on Eastern Kentucky, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +0.7 pts
Q2 5:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards 0% EKU +1.6 pts
Q2 0:57 Pass Interference on Eastern Kentucky, 11 yards 0% LOU +0.3 pts
Q2 0:06 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +1.1 pts
Q3 14:18 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +0.7 pts
Q3 14:18 Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% EKU +0.7 pts
Q3 9:06 False Start on Eastern Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +0.7 pts
Q3 7:41 Pass Interference on Louisville, 4 yards 0% EKU +1.7 pts
Q3 6:47 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards 0% EKU +1.3 pts
Q3 2:37 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards 0% EKU +1.1 pts
Q4 14:57 Pass Interference on Louisville, 4 yards 0% EKU +1.1 pts

When it happened

Louisville’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisville was ahead in it, below while Eastern Kentucky was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 Louisville converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +0% LOU LOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:11 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% EKU EKU: Punt
3 Q1 10:36 Louisville converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% LOU LOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 9:40 Personal Foul on Louisville, 11 yardsJudgment calls +0% EKU EKU: Punt
5 Q1 8:55 Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% LOU EKU: Punt
6 Q1 7:49 Return touchdown by LouisvilleSpecial teams +0% LOU LOU: Touchdown
7 Q1 6:04 Eastern Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% LOU EKU: Punt
8 Q2 14:09 Eastern Kentucky converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% EKU EKU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eastern Kentucky 0% · Louisville 100%

Final margin
Louisville by 34
Luck in points
6.4 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
Louisville by 27.6
Replay with same day's form
Eastern Kentucky 0% · Louisville 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · Eastern Kentucky · Louisville

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