luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 9 2026 · Saturday, October 31

Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh prediction and pick

Our Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh Panthers pick: Pittsburgh by 15.2, 82% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh

Sat, Oct 31, time to be announced · Acrisure Stadium

Pittsburgh by 15.2 · 82% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Georgia Tech win17.9%
Pittsburgh win82.0%
Middle 50%: Pittsburgh by 3 to Pittsburgh by 2750%
Middle 90%: Georgia Tech by 13 to Pittsburgh by 4290%
Middle 95%: Georgia Tech by 17 to Pittsburgh by 4995%
Exactly Pittsburgh by 35.1%
Exactly Pittsburgh by 74.8%
Exactly Pittsburgh by 144.2%
Exactly Pittsburgh by 174.1%
Exactly Pittsburgh by 214.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Pittsburgh by 3 and Pittsburgh by 27.
P90
9 in 10 between Georgia Tech by 13 and Pittsburgh by 42.
P95
19 in 20 between Georgia Tech by 17 and Pittsburgh by 49.
Where the forecast comes from
This season, against its opponentsPittsburgh+12.8
Home fieldPittsburgh+3.1
Last seasonGeorgia Tech+0.7

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Georgia Tech 1–3 2.3 −1.9
Pittsburgh 4–0 3.8 +0.6

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh: questions and answers

Who will win Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh?

Our forecast picks Pittsburgh, with 82% to win; Georgia Tech win 18% of the time.

What’s the spread for Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh?

Our spread: Pittsburgh −15.2. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh?

Saturday, October 31, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Acrisure Stadium.