Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Gardner-Webb at Georgia Tech, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Gardner-Webb 59–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | 12 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Georgia Tech about even · 0 Gardner-Webb
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Gardner-Webb wins 0, Georgia Tech wins 10.
- 1 GWEB 21 GT 38
- 2 GWEB 14 GT 42
- 3 GWEB 21 GT 55
- 4 GWEB 24 GT 63
- 5 GWEB 6 GT 49
- 6 GWEB 16 GT 63
- 7 GWEB 16 GT 66
- 8 GWEB 7 GT 62
- 9 GWEB 6 GT 66
- 10 GWEB 10 GT 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Gardner-Webb wins 0% of them, Georgia Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 47.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Gardner-Webb by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Gardner-Webb by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Gardner-Webb 3 for 14 yards, Georgia Tech 12 for 114 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:27 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 24 yards, wiping out the play | +1% GT +3.5 pts |
| Q1 0:42 | Roughing the Kicker on Georgia Tech, 14 yards | 0% GWEB +3.8 pts |
| Q2 9:27 | False Start on Gardner-Webb, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:20 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:23 | Illegal Block on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | 0% GWEB +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:27 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 16 yards | 0% GWEB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 12 yards | 0% GWEB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:12 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | 0% GWEB +4.1 pts |
| Q3 3:29 | False Start on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +1.9 pts |
| Q4 13:58 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +3.1 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | Illegal Formation on Gardner-Webb, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +2.3 pts |
| Q4 5:07 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 5 yards | 0% GWEB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GWEB +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:17 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedGardner-Webb missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% GT | GWEB: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 7:10 | Gardner-Webb converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% GWEB | GWEB: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 5:13 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% GT | GWEB: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 4:27 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 24 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% GT | GWEB: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 1:40 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% GT | GWEB: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 15:00 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% GT | GWEB: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 14:01 | Gardner-Webb was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% GT | GWEB: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:39 | Gardner-Webb missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% GT | GWEB: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Gardner-Webb 0% · Georgia Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 47
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 39.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Gardner-Webb 0% · Georgia Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Gardner-Webb · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lindenwood at App State APP 20–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner