Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Georgia Tech at Boston College, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Boston College 36–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:13 left): Boston College converted 3rd & 19, worth 11 points of win probability to Boston College.
Final
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 36 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Georgia Tech lucky · −30 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 7, Boston College wins 3.
- 1 GT 70 BC 35
- 2 GT 56 BC 31
- 3 GT 52 BC 31
- 4 GT 39 BC 24
- 5 GT 38 BC 28
- 6 GT 38 BC 31
- 7 GT 35 BC 33
- 8 GT 49 BC 52
- 9 GT 35 BC 45
- 10 GT 28 BC 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Tech wins 70% of them, Boston College 30%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 30.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.8% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 5.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 49 yds missed · 59% expected
- A. Birr, 34 yds made · 84% expected
- A. Birr, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- A. Birr, 23 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Georgia Tech 6 for 34 yards, Boston College 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:22 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:25 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:02 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +1% BC +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:05 | Illegal Touching on Boston College, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% GT +2.7 pts |
| Q2 0:36 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia Tech, 4 yards | +1% BC +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:19 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 15 yards | +6% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:04 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 4:40 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +6% BC | GT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 0:23 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +10% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 0:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:19 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 7:33 | Georgia Tech’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% BC | GT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:13 | Boston College converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +11% BC | BC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:09 | Boston College’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% GT | BC: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 3:19 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +6% GT | GT: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Tech 89% · Boston College 11%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 2
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Boston College
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Tech by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Tech 70% · Boston College 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Georgia Tech · 
Boston College
More from Week 12 2025
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Carolina at Wake Forest WAKE 28–12 · replay 89% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Florida State FSU 34–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Virginia at Duke UVA 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- NC State at Miami MIA 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner