Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
NC State at Miami, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat NC State 41–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:36 left): Return touchdown by Miami, worth 9 points of win probability to Miami.
Final
 NC State Wolfpack | 7 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 NC State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. NC State wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 NCSU 10 MIA 24
- 2 NCSU 7 MIA 31
- 3 NCSU 0 MIA 30
- 4 NCSU 7 MIA 41
- 5 NCSU 7 MIA 44
- 6 NCSU 3 MIA 44
- 7 NCSU 6 MIA 49
- 8 NCSU 0 MIA 48
- 9 NCSU 0 MIA 52
- 10 NCSU 0 MIA 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
NC State wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| NC State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| NC State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| NC State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Miami by 17+ | 97.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Davis, 38 yds made · 78% expected
- C. Davis, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
Penalties: NC State 4 for 30 yards, Miami 8 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:32 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:39 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% NCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:55 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% NCSU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 9:04 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% NCSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:38 | Illegal Shift on Miami, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +3.2 pts |
| Q3 3:08 | Pass Interference on Miami, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +3.1 pts |
| Q3 1:49 | Personal Foul on NC State, 15 yards | 0% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:12 | Personal Foul on Miami, 15 yards | 0% NCSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:23 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCSU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:27 | False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:32 | False Start on NC State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 13:29 | NC State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% MIA | NCSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:46 | Miami converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +2% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 7:43 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% NCSU | MIA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 6:35 | False Start on NC State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 4:23 | Miami fumbled and NC State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% NCSU | MIA: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:36 | Return touchdown by MiamiSpecial teams | +9% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 14:54 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +1% NCSU | MIA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
NC State 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 34
- Luck in points
- 8.5 for NC State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 42.5
- Replay with same day's form
- NC State 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
NC State · 
Miami
More from Week 12 2025
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Boston College GT 36–34 · replay 70% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Carolina at Wake Forest WAKE 28–12 · replay 89% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Florida State FSU 34–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Virginia at Duke UVA 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner