luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 8 2026 · Saturday, October 24

Boston College vs Georgia Tech prediction and pick

Our Boston College Eagles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets pick: Georgia Tech by 12.4, 78% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Boston College at Georgia Tech

Sat, Oct 24, time to be announced · Bobby Dodd Stadium

Georgia Tech by 12.4 · 78% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Boston College win22.5%
Georgia Tech win77.5%
Middle 50%: Georgia Tech by 3 to Georgia Tech by 2450%
Middle 90%: Boston College by 15 to Georgia Tech by 3990%
Middle 95%: Boston College by 21 to Georgia Tech by 4595%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 35.7%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 75.1%
Exactly Boston College by 34.4%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 144.2%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 174.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Georgia Tech by 3 and Georgia Tech by 24.
P90
9 in 10 between Boston College by 15 and Georgia Tech by 39.
P95
19 in 20 between Boston College by 21 and Georgia Tech by 45.
Where the forecast comes from
Last seasonGeorgia Tech+6.6
Home fieldGeorgia Tech+3.1
This season, against its opponentsGeorgia Tech+2.7

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Boston College 2–2 2.0 +0.4
Georgia Tech 1–3 2.3 −1.9

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Boston College vs Georgia Tech: questions and answers

Who will win Boston College vs Georgia Tech?

Our forecast picks Georgia Tech, with 78% to win; Boston College win 22% of the time.

What’s the spread for Boston College vs Georgia Tech?

Our spread: Georgia Tech −12.4. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Boston College vs Georgia Tech?

Saturday, October 24, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Bobby Dodd Stadium.