luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28

Georgia Tech vs Georgia prediction and pick

Our Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Georgia Bulldogs pick: Georgia by 26.9, 94% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Georgia Tech at Georgia

Sat, Nov 28, time to be announced · Sanford Stadium

Georgia by 26.9 · 94% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Georgia Tech win5.6%
Georgia win94.4%
Middle 50%: Georgia by 15 to Georgia by 3850%
Middle 90%: Georgia Tech by 2 to Georgia by 5590%
Middle 95%: Georgia Tech by 7 to Georgia by 6095%
Exactly Georgia by 565.0%
Exactly Georgia by 284.4%
Exactly Georgia by 213.9%
Exactly Georgia by 353.4%
Exactly Georgia by 173.4%
P50
Half of games like this end between Georgia by 15 and Georgia by 38.
P90
9 in 10 between Georgia Tech by 2 and Georgia by 55.
P95
19 in 20 between Georgia Tech by 7 and Georgia by 60.
Where the forecast comes from
This season, against its opponentsGeorgia+20.9
Home fieldGeorgia+3.1
Last seasonGeorgia+3.0

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Georgia Tech 1–3 2.3 −1.9
Georgia 4–0 4.0 +0.1

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Georgia Tech vs Georgia: questions and answers

Who will win Georgia Tech vs Georgia?

Our forecast picks Georgia, with 94% to win; Georgia Tech win 6% of the time.

What’s the spread for Georgia Tech vs Georgia?

Our spread: Georgia −26.9. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Georgia Tech vs Georgia?

Saturday, November 28, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Sanford Stadium.