Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Western Carolina at Wake Forest, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Wake Forest beat Western Carolina 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wake Forest wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Wake Forest was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Western Carolina Catamounts | 10 |
|---|---|
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Wake Forest about even · 0 Western Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Carolina wins 0, Wake Forest wins 10.
- 1 WCU 7 WAKE 28
- 2 WCU 16 WAKE 46
- 3 WCU 10 WAKE 45
- 4 WCU 0 WAKE 40
- 5 WCU 0 WAKE 45
- 6 WCU 10 WAKE 59
- 7 WCU 21 WAKE 73
- 8 WCU 0 WAKE 57
- 9 WCU 0 WAKE 61
- 10 WCU 3 WAKE 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Carolina wins 0% of them, Wake Forest 100%. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Carolina by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Carolina by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Western Carolina by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 96.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Lowery, 23 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Calvert, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
Penalties: Western Carolina 3 for 35 yards, Wake Forest 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:41 | Pass Interference on Western Carolina, 15 yards | 0% WAKE +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | False Start on Western Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | Delay of Game on Wake Forest, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% WCU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wake Forest, 9 yards | 0% WCU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:26 | Face Mask on Wake Forest, 3 yards | +1% WCU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 3:58 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | 0% WCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:23 | Pass Interference on Western Carolina, 15 yards | 0% WAKE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:25 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | 0% WCU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Wake Forest’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:33 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:59 | Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% WCU | WAKE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:06 | Western Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +3% WCU | WCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:40 | Western Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +1% WAKE | WCU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:28 | Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% WCU | WAKE: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 7:06 | Western Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% WAKE | WCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 6:37 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% WAKE | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 5:53 | Western Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +1% WCU | WCU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Carolina 0% · Wake Forest 100%
- Final margin
- Wake Forest by 32
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Western Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wake Forest by 41.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Carolina 0% · Wake Forest 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Western Carolina · 
Wake Forest
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech VAN 44–20 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Pittsburgh PITT 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner