College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
San Diego State vs Boise State prediction and pick
Our San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos pick: Boise State by 17.1, 84% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Boise State by 17.1San Diego State win 16%Boise State win 84%5649423528211470714212835424956← San Diego State win byBoise State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
San Diego State win
15.6%
Boise State win
84.4%
Middle 50%: Boise State by 6 to Boise State by 28
50%
Middle 90%: San Diego State by 11 to Boise State by 45
90%
Middle 95%: San Diego State by 17 to Boise State by 50
95%
Exactly Boise State by 3
4.6%
Exactly Boise State by 7
4.4%
Exactly Boise State by 21
4.1%
Exactly Boise State by 14
4.1%
Exactly Boise State by 17
4.0%
P50
Half of games like this end between Boise State by 6 and Boise State by 28.
P90
9 in 10 between San Diego State by 11 and Boise State by 45.
P95
19 in 20 between San Diego State by 17 and Boise State by 50.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
San Diego State vs Boise State: questions and answers
Who will win San Diego State vs Boise State?
Our forecast picks Boise State, with 84% to win; San Diego State win 16% of the time.
What’s the spread for San Diego State vs Boise State?
Our spread: Boise State −17.1. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is San Diego State vs Boise State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 9:30 pm ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
San Diego State at 
Boise State
