College football · Week 8 2026 · Saturday, October 24
San Diego State vs Colorado State prediction and pick
Our San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams pick: Colorado State by 1.0, 52% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Colorado State by 1.0San Diego State win 48%Colorado State win 52%494235282114707142128354249← San Diego State win byColorado State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
San Diego State win
47.7%
Colorado State win
52.3%
Middle 50%: San Diego State by 10 to Colorado State by 12
50%
Middle 90%: San Diego State by 27 to Colorado State by 28
90%
Middle 95%: San Diego State by 32 to Colorado State by 34
95%
Exactly Colorado State by 3
6.7%
Exactly San Diego State by 3
6.5%
Exactly Colorado State by 7
5.1%
Exactly San Diego State by 7
4.8%
Exactly Colorado State by 14
3.1%
P50
Half of games like this end between San Diego State by 10 and Colorado State by 12.
P90
9 in 10 between San Diego State by 27 and Colorado State by 28.
P95
19 in 20 between San Diego State by 32 and Colorado State by 34.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
San Diego State vs Colorado State: questions and answers
Who will win San Diego State vs Colorado State?
Our forecast picks Colorado State, with 52% to win; San Diego State win 48% of the time.
What’s the spread for San Diego State vs Colorado State?
Our spread: Colorado State −1.0. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is San Diego State vs Colorado State?
Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 6:30 pm ET, at Canvas Stadium.
San Diego State at 
Colorado State
