College football · Week 8 2026 · Saturday, October 24
Boise State vs Washington State prediction and pick
Our Boise State Broncos at Washington State Cougars pick: Boise State by 9.8, 72% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Boise State by 9.8Boise State win 72%Washington State win 28%5649423528211470714212835424956← Boise State win byWashington State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Boise State win
72.4%
Washington State win
27.6%
Middle 50%: Boise State by 21 to Washington State by 3
50%
Middle 90%: Boise State by 37 to Washington State by 17
90%
Middle 95%: Boise State by 42 to Washington State by 23
95%
Exactly Boise State by 3
6.2%
Exactly Boise State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Washington State by 3
5.0%
Exactly Boise State by 14
4.1%
Exactly Boise State by 17
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Boise State by 21 and Washington State by 3.
P90
9 in 10 between Boise State by 37 and Washington State by 17.
P95
19 in 20 between Boise State by 42 and Washington State by 23.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Boise State vs Washington State: questions and answers
Who will win Boise State vs Washington State?
Our forecast picks Boise State, with 72% to win; Washington State win 28% of the time.
What’s the spread for Boise State vs Washington State?
Our spread: Boise State −9.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Boise State vs Washington State?
Saturday, October 24, 2026, at 6:00 pm ET, at Gesa Field.
Boise State at 
Washington State
