College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Utah State vs San Diego State prediction and pick
Our Utah State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs pick: San Diego State by 4.8, 61% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: San Diego State by 4.8Utah State win 39%San Diego State win 61%5649423528211470714212835424956← Utah State win bySan Diego State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Utah State win
38.8%
San Diego State win
61.2%
Middle 50%: Utah State by 7 to San Diego State by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Utah State by 23 to San Diego State by 33
90%
Middle 95%: Utah State by 28 to San Diego State by 38
95%
Exactly San Diego State by 3
6.5%
Exactly Utah State by 3
5.9%
Exactly San Diego State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Utah State by 7
4.2%
Exactly San Diego State by 14
3.6%
P50
Half of games like this end between Utah State by 7 and San Diego State by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Utah State by 23 and San Diego State by 33.
P95
19 in 20 between Utah State by 28 and San Diego State by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Utah State vs San Diego State: questions and answers
Who will win Utah State vs San Diego State?
Our forecast picks San Diego State, with 61% to win; Utah State win 39% of the time.
What’s the spread for Utah State vs San Diego State?
Our spread: San Diego State −4.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Utah State vs San Diego State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 9:30 pm ET, at Snapdragon Stadium.
Utah State at 
San Diego State
