College football · Week 11 2026 · Saturday, November 14
Colorado State vs Washington State prediction and pick
Our Colorado State Rams at Washington State Cougars pick: Washington State by 6.4, 65% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 7 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.0, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Washington State by 6.4Colorado State win 35%Washington State win 65%5649423528211470714212835424956← Colorado State win byWashington State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Colorado State win
35.3%
Washington State win
64.8%
Middle 50%: Colorado State by 5 to Washington State by 18
50%
Middle 90%: Colorado State by 21 to Washington State by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Colorado State by 27 to Washington State by 39
95%
Exactly Washington State by 3
6.4%
Exactly Colorado State by 3
5.6%
Exactly Washington State by 7
5.3%
Exactly Colorado State by 7
3.9%
Exactly Washington State by 14
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between Colorado State by 5 and Washington State by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Colorado State by 21 and Washington State by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Colorado State by 27 and Washington State by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Colorado State vs Washington State: questions and answers
Who will win Colorado State vs Washington State?
Our forecast picks Washington State, with 65% to win; Colorado State win 35% of the time.
What’s the spread for Colorado State vs Washington State?
Our spread: Washington State −6.4. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Colorado State vs Washington State?
Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 10:30 pm ET, at Gesa Field.
Colorado State at 
Washington State
