luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Northern Iowa at Wyoming, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Wyoming beat Northern Iowa 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Wyoming was an 81% favorite.

Final

Northern Iowa Panthers 7
Wyoming Cowboys 31

September 6, 2025 · War Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Wyoming −13.5

Luck index +1 Wyoming about even · −1 Northern Iowa

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northern Iowa wins 0, Wyoming wins 10.

  1. 1 UNI 19 WYO 27
  2. 2 UNI 17 WYO 31
  3. 3 UNI 9 WYO 28
  4. 4 UNI 0 WYO 24
  5. 5 UNI 0 WYO 27
  6. 6 UNI 2 WYO 31
  7. 7 UNI 0 WYO 31
  8. 8 UNI 0 WYO 35
  9. 9 UNI 2 WYO 42
  10. 10 UNI 2 WYO 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northern Iowa wins 1% of them, Wyoming 99%. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northern Iowa by 17+0.0%
Northern Iowa by 9–160.1%
Northern Iowa by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.1%
Wyoming by 1–82.5%
Wyoming by 9–165.3%
Wyoming by 17+91.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to Wyoming: the final margin was Wyoming by 24, without the luck Wyoming by 22.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Sandvik, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
  • M. Bartachek, 40 yds missed · 73% expected
  • E. Sandvik, 40 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Northern Iowa 17 for 222 yards, Wyoming 16 for 165 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:23 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WYO +1.2 pts
Q1 12:23 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNI +1.0 pts
Q1 7:31 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WYO 0.0 pts
Q1 7:31 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WYO +1.2 pts
Q1 7:23 Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards 0% UNI 0.0 pts
Q1 7:23 Pass Interference on Wyoming, 18 yards +2% UNI +1.1 pts
Q1 6:44 Illegal Motion on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNI +0.8 pts
Q1 6:41 Illegal Motion on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WYO +0.9 pts
Q1 4:23 Face Mask on Northern Iowa, 25 yards, wiping out the play +1% UNI +0.6 pts
Q1 4:17 Face Mask on Northern Iowa, 15 yards +2% WYO +1.6 pts
Q2 14:05 Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI 0.0 pts
Q2 14:05 Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNI +1.0 pts
Q2 14:03 Holding on Northern Iowa, 72 yards, wiping out the play +5% UNI +3.8 pts
Q2 13:18 Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards +2% UNI +1.7 pts
Q2 10:35 Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yards +4% UNI +2.6 pts
Q2 7:29 Pass Interference on Wyoming, 10 yards +7% WYO +2.4 pts
Q2 6:49 False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNI +0.6 pts
Q2 0:22 Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards +1% UNI +0.5 pts
Q3 12:17 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yards 0% WYO 0.0 pts
Q3 12:13 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yards +2% WYO +1.4 pts
Q3 10:05 Intentional Grounding on Wyoming, 15 yards +1% WYO +0.7 pts
Q3 9:59 Intentional Grounding on Wyoming, 15 yards +4% UNI +3.4 pts
Q3 9:55 Face Mask on Northern Iowa, 15 yards 0% WYO 0.0 pts
Q3 9:53 Face Mask on Northern Iowa, 15 yards +4% WYO +3.9 pts
Q3 4:35 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI +1.6 pts
Q3 4:35 False Start on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WYO +0.7 pts
Q3 4:24 Holding on Wyoming, 17 yards 0% WYO +0.6 pts
Q3 4:18 Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards 0% UNI +0.4 pts
Q3 3:06 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yards 0% WYO 0.0 pts
Q3 3:00 Holding on Northern Iowa, 10 yards +1% WYO +1.8 pts
Q3 1:40 Illegal Formation on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WYO 0.0 pts
Q3 1:34 Illegal Formation on Northern Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI +0.6 pts
Q4 1:58 Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNI +0.2 pts

When it happened

Wyoming’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wyoming was ahead in it, below while Northern Iowa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:23 Northern Iowa was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedPass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on Wyoming, 18 yardsJudgment calls +5% UNI UNI: Missed field goal
2 Q1 5:31 M. Bartachek missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him +4% WYO UNI: Punt
3 Q2 14:03 Holding on Northern Iowa, 72 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% UNI WYO: Punt
4 Q2 10:35 Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% UNI UNI: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:29 Pass Interference on Wyoming, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% WYO UNI: Touchdown
6 Q3 15:00 Northern Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedNorthern Iowa converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% UNI UNI: Turnover
7 Q3 9:59 Intentional Grounding on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% UNI UNI: Punt
8 Q3 9:53 Face Mask on Northern Iowa, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% WYO WYO: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northern Iowa 0% · Wyoming 100%

Final margin
Wyoming by 24
Luck in points
1.9 for Wyoming
Luck-adjusted margin
Wyoming by 22.1
Replay with same day's form
Northern Iowa 1% · Wyoming 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Northern Iowa · Wyoming

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