Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 54 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Idaho State at New Mexico, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat Idaho State 32–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico wins 8 of 10. Idaho State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Idaho State.
Before kickoff New Mexico was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:35 left): New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to Idaho State.
Final
 Idaho State Bengals | 22 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico Lobos | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 New Mexico about even · −16 Idaho State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Idaho State wins 2, New Mexico wins 8.
- 1 IDST 21 UNM 10
- 2 IDST 24 UNM 21
- 3 IDST 24 UNM 27
- 4 IDST 10 UNM 17
- 5 IDST 14 UNM 24
- 6 IDST 7 UNM 20
- 7 IDST 7 UNM 24
- 8 IDST 20 UNM 41
- 9 IDST 13 UNM 38
- 10 IDST 14 UNM 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Idaho State wins 16% of them, New Mexico 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Idaho State by 17+ | 1.9% |
| Idaho State by 9–16 | 4.1% |
| Idaho State by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| New Mexico by 17+ | 39.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sinatra, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- T. Sinatra, 56 yds made · 44% expected
- T. Sinatra, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 21 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Idaho State 11 for 134 yards, New Mexico 3 for 18 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:09 | Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards | 0% IDST 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:05 | Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards | +2% UNM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:03 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | 0% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:43 | Personal Foul on Idaho State, 25 yards, wiping out the play | +2% IDST +3.4 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards | +1% UNM +0.4 pts |
| Q3 13:53 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IDST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:53 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IDST +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:41 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards | 0% IDST 0.0 pts |
| Q3 11:36 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UNM +2.6 pts |
| Q3 10:25 | Holding on New Mexico, 8 yards | +1% IDST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:06 | Illegal Substitution on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNM +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:57 | Pass Interference on Idaho State, 9 yards | +2% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:32 | Delay of Game on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:27 | Personal Foul on Idaho State, 15 yards | 0% UNM +0.4 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico’s chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 11:36 | Holding on Idaho State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% UNM | UNM: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 10:30 | T. Sinatra made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 44% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +5% IDST | IDST: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 7:36 | Idaho State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedIdaho State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% IDST | IDST: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 5:25 | T. Sinatra made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +7% IDST | IDST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 8:35 | New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +11% IDST | UNM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:24 | New Mexico converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +6% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:17 | New Mexico’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:47 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Idaho State 0% · New Mexico 100%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 10
- Luck in points
- 8.3 for Idaho State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico by 18.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Idaho State 16% · New Mexico 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 48 of the 54 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Idaho State · 
New Mexico
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cal Poly at Utah UTAH 63–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- UC Davis at Washington WASH 70–10 · replay 100% for the winner
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