Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
UC Davis at Washington, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington beat UC Davis 70–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington was a 97% favorite.
Final
 UC Davis Aggies | 10 |
|---|---|
 Washington Huskies | 70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Washington about even · 0 UC Davis
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UC Davis wins 0, Washington wins 10.
- 1 UCD 28 WASH 38
- 2 UCD 10 WASH 28
- 3 UCD 14 WASH 38
- 4 UCD 0 WASH 28
- 5 UCD 21 WASH 52
- 6 UCD 3 WASH 37
- 7 UCD 0 WASH 38
- 8 UCD 0 WASH 41
- 9 UCD 7 WASH 52
- 10 UCD 6 WASH 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UC Davis wins 0% of them, Washington 100%. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 60.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UC Davis by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UC Davis by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| UC Davis by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Washington by 17+ | 95.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: UC Davis 9 for 66 yards, Washington 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:43 | Offside on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.4 pts |
| Q1 5:30 | Offside on UC Davis, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.1 pts |
| Q1 3:36 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | 0% UCD +1.8 pts |
| Q2 8:06 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | 0% UCD +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:01 | Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards | 0% UCD +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:01 | False Start on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:01 | False Start on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:19 | Roughing the Passer on UC Davis, 15 yards | 0% WASH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:49 | Offside on UC Davis, 9 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:39 | Personal Foul on Washington, 15 yards | 0% UCD +1.6 pts |
| Q3 10:40 | Delay of Game on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:52 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UC Davis, 15 yards | 0% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:10 | Delay of Game on UC Davis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Washington’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | UC Davis was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% WASH | UCD: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:33 | UC Davis was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% WASH | UCD: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:28 | Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:35 | H. Ridley made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 1 of 5 from 45+ before | +0% WASH | UCD: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 3:36 | Holding on Washington, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UCD | UCD: Turnover |
| 6 | Q1 2:37 | Washington converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +0% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:51 | Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:34 | UC Davis converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% UCD | UCD: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UC Davis 0% · Washington 100%
- Final margin
- Washington by 60
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 50.1
- Replay with same day's form
- UC Davis 0% · Washington 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
UC Davis · 
Washington
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- Cal Poly at Utah UTAH 63–9 · replay 95% for the winner