Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Sacramento State at Nevada, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Nevada beat Sacramento State 20–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Sacramento State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Sacramento State.
Before kickoff Nevada was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:17 left): Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 68 points of win probability to Nevada.
Final
 Sacramento State Hornets | 17 |
|---|---|
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Nevada lucky · −32 Sacramento State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sacramento State wins 3, Nevada wins 7.
- 1 SAC 20 NEV 3
- 2 SAC 24 NEV 14
- 3 SAC 31 NEV 28
- 4 SAC 21 NEV 23
- 5 SAC 17 NEV 23
- 6 SAC 17 NEV 26
- 7 SAC 20 NEV 32
- 8 SAC 17 NEV 31
- 9 SAC 10 NEV 30
- 10 SAC 0 NEV 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sacramento State wins 32% of them, Nevada 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Nevada by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sacramento State by 17+ | 6.1% |
| Sacramento State by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Sacramento State by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Nevada by 17+ | 25.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Meadors, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- J. McFadden, 37 yds made · 78% expected
- J. McFadden, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- G. Meadors, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
Penalties: Sacramento State 10 for 76 yards, Nevada 7 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:49 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEV +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:22 | False Start on Sacramento State, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% NEV +0.1 pts |
| Q1 2:47 | Delay of Game on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:17 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 5 yards | +1% NEV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:58 | Running Into the Kicker on Nevada, 5 yards | +7% SAC +3.2 pts |
| Q1 0:50 | Face Mask on Nevada, 15 yards | +3% SAC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NEV +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Pass Interference on Sacramento State, 15 yards | +3% NEV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:52 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SAC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | False Start on Sacramento State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NEV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:19 | Pass Interference on Nevada, 15 yards | +7% SAC +2.0 pts |
| Q3 1:47 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NEV +3.0 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards | +5% NEV +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:24 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +65% NEV +5.3 pts |
| Q4 0:17 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +68% NEV +5.7 pts |
| Q4 0:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Nevada, 12 yards | +17% SAC +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Nevada’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:23 | Sacramento State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% SAC | SAC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 1:47 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% NEV | NEV: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 12:16 | Nevada was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +11% SAC | NEV: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 7:44 | Nevada converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% NEV | NEV: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 2:32 | Nevada was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +13% SAC | NEV: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:17 | Return touchdown by NevadaSpecial teams | +63% NEV | NEV: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:24 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +65% NEV | NEV: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:17 | Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +68% NEV | NEV: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sacramento State 34% · Nevada 66%
- Final margin
- Nevada by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Nevada
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Nevada by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sacramento State 32% · Nevada 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Sacramento State · 
Nevada
More from Week 2 2025
- San Diego State at Washington State WSU 36–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Fresno State at Oregon State FRES 36–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- San José State at Texas TEX 38–7 · replay 86% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cal Poly at Utah UTAH 63–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Northern Colorado at Colorado State CSU 21–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Northern Iowa at Wyoming WYO 31–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- UC Davis at Washington WASH 70–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Eastern Washington at Boise State BOIS 51–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah State at Texas A&M TA&M 44–22 · replay 100% for the winner