Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Utah State at UNLV, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
UNLV beat Utah State 29–26, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff UNLV was a 61% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (OT): T. Rinker missed a 41-yard field goal, worth 40 points of win probability to UNLV.
Final (OT)
 Utah State Aggies | 26 |
|---|---|
 UNLV Rebels | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 UNLV lucky · −32 Utah State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah State wins 3, UNLV wins 7.
- 1 USU 34 UNLV 14
- 2 USU 20 UNLV 10
- 3 USU 15 UNLV 12
- 4 USU 23 UNLV 24
- 5 USU 20 UNLV 24
- 6 USU 14 UNLV 21
- 7 USU 20 UNLV 31
- 8 USU 27 UNLV 42
- 9 USU 17 UNLV 37
- 10 USU 14 UNLV 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah State wins 32% of them, UNLV 68%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UNLV by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah State by 17+ | 5.1% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 8.2% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| UNLV by 17+ | 23.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Rinker, 41 yds missed · 73% expected
- R. Villela, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- R. Villela, 59 yds missed · 40% expected
- T. Rinker, 24 yds made · 94% expected
- R. Villela, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- R. Villela, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- T. Rinker, 44 yds missed · 67% expected
- R. Villela, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
- T. Rinker, 41 yds missed · 72% expected
- T. Rinker, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Utah State 5 for 60 yards, UNLV 4 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:25 | Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yards | +4% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:24 | Illegal Touching on UNLV, 0 yards | 0% USU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:17 | Illegal Snap on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:17 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% USU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 2:28 | Illegal Substitution on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% USU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 10:28 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% UNLV +2.8 pts |
| Q4 7:56 | Illegal Forward Pass on UNLV, 5 yards | +1% USU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:09 | Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yards | +12% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:45 | Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards | +9% UNLV +1.2 pts |
When it happened
UNLV’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 4:32 | UNLV converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +14% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 10:28 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 6:56 | Utah State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +14% USU | USU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 5:52 | UNLV converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 4:09 | Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +12% UNLV | UNLV: Field goal |
| 6 | OT | R. Villela missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +34% USU | – |
| 7 | OT | The game turned hereT. Rinker missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +40% UNLV | – |
| 8 | 2OT | T. Rinker made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +10% UNLV | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah State 80% · UNLV 20%
- Final margin
- UNLV by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for UNLV
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 6.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah State 32% · UNLV 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Utah State · 
UNLV
More from Week 12 2025
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Colorado State at New Mexico UNM 20–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Boise State at San Diego State SDSU 17–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wyoming at Fresno State FRES 24–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- San José State at Nevada NEV 55–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner