Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Rice at Notre Dame, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Rice 52–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Rice Owls | 0 |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Notre Dame about even · 0 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rice wins 0, Notre Dame wins 10.
- 1 RICE 3 ND 21
- 2 RICE 0 ND 26
- 3 RICE 0 ND 31
- 4 RICE 0 ND 34
- 5 RICE 0 ND 36
- 6 RICE 0 ND 38
- 7 RICE 0 ND 41
- 8 RICE 0 ND 44
- 9 RICE 0 ND 49
- 10 RICE 0 ND 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rice wins 0% of them, Notre Dame 100%. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 52.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rice by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 96.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Rice 4 for 37 yards, Notre Dame 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:54 | Chop Block on Rice, 13 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ND +2.0 pts |
| Q2 11:30 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | Personal Foul on Notre Dame, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RICE +2.1 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | Personal Foul on Rice, 15 yards | 0% ND +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:24 | Pass Interference on Rice, 4 yards | 0% ND +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:39 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Notre Dame’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:46 | Rice fumbled and Notre Dame recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Notre DameSpecial teams | +0% ND | RICE: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 14:00 | Rice fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% RICE | RICE: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 9:54 | Chop Block on Rice, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:42 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 283rd & 4th downs · 9% expected | +0% ND | RICE: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:04 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:17 | Rice was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% ND | RICE: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 0:25 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:07 | Rice converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% ND | RICE: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rice 0% · Notre Dame 100%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 52
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 47.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rice 0% · Notre Dame 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Rice · 
Notre Dame
More from Week 2 2026
- UTSA at Texas State UTSA 31–26 · replay 24% for the winner
- Tulsa at Sam Houston TLSA 23–17 · replay 27% for the winner
- App State at East Carolina APP 27–24 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Army USF 28–24 · replay 38% for the winner
- Memphis at Boise State BOIS 38–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- South Alabama at Tulane TULN 28–24 · replay 56% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UAB UAB 26–20 · replay 81% for the winner
- Navy at Florida Atlantic FAU 38–30 · replay 85% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- UNLV at North Texas UNT 44–6 · replay 99% for the winner