College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
SMU vs Notre Dame prediction and pick
Our SMU Mustangs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish pick: Notre Dame by 22.5, 91% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
SMU vs Notre Dame: questions and answers
Who will win SMU vs Notre Dame?
Our forecast picks Notre Dame, with 91% to win; SMU win 9% of the time.
What’s the spread for SMU vs Notre Dame?
Our spread: Notre Dame −22.5. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is SMU vs Notre Dame?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 7:30 pm ET, at Notre Dame Stadium.
SMU at 
Notre Dame
