Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Jacksonville State at Florida International, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida International beat Jacksonville State 27–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Florida International wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Florida International.
Before kickoff Florida International was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:29 left): Jacksonville State fumbled and Florida International recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to Florida International.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Florida International lucky · −58 Jacksonville State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 6, Florida International wins 4.
- 1 JXST 38 FIU 7
- 2 JXST 33 FIU 10
- 3 JXST 33 FIU 17
- 4 JXST 31 FIU 20
- 5 JXST 34 FIU 27
- 6 JXST 10 FIU 7
- 7 JXST 26 FIU 28
- 8 JXST 14 FIU 21
- 9 JXST 23 FIU 36
- 10 JXST 17 FIU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jacksonville State wins 58% of them, Florida International 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 21.7% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| Florida International by 17+ | 11.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- N. Grant, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- N. Grant, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Penalties: Jacksonville State 4 for 45 yards, Florida International 9 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:02 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +2% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Roughing the Passer on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +4% FIU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JXST +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Roughing the Passer on Florida International, 15 yards | +1% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Ineligible Downfield on Florida International, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% JXST +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:27 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JXST +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% JXST +2.6 pts |
| Q3 5:00 | Block Below the Waist on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +5% FIU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 1:38 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:53 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:04 | Running Into the Kicker on Jacksonville State, 5 yards | 0% FIU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:02 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | +3% JXST +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida International’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:22 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% FIU | JXST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 7:22 | Florida International fumbled and Jacksonville State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% JXST | FIU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 5:20 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 13:42 | Jacksonville State fumbled and Florida International recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% FIU | JXST: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 11:19 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% FIU | JXST: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:29 | Jacksonville State fumbled and Florida International recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% FIU | JXST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 6:45 | Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% FIU | JXST: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:05 | Florida International converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +11% FIU | FIU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jacksonville State 65% · Florida International 35%
- Final margin
- Florida International by 6
- Luck in points
- 9.0 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jacksonville State 58% · Florida International 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Jacksonville State · 
Florida International
More from Week 13 2025
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- Liberty at Louisiana Tech LT 34–28 · replay 45% for the winner
- New Mexico State at UTEP NMSU 34–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at LSU LSU 13–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee MTSU 31–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner