Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Howard at Indiana, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Indiana beat Howard 55–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Indiana was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Howard Bison | 0 |
|---|---|
 Indiana Hoosiers | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Howard
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Howard wins 0, Indiana wins 10.
- 1 HOW 7 IU 23
- 2 HOW 7 IU 31
- 3 HOW 0 IU 28
- 4 HOW 13 IU 45
- 5 HOW 7 IU 42
- 6 HOW 0 IU 38
- 7 HOW 3 IU 45
- 8 HOW 7 IU 52
- 9 HOW 0 IU 49
- 10 HOW 0 IU 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Howard wins 0% of them, Indiana 100%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 55.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Howard by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Howard by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Howard by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Indiana by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Indiana by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Indiana by 17+ | 95.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Howard 7 for 51 yards, Indiana 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:03 | False Start on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 5:08 | False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOW +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:06 | Illegal Block on Howard, 10 yards | 0% IU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:32 | False Start on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on Howard, 15 yards | 0% IU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:43 | Holding on Howard, 6 yards | 0% IU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Holding on Indiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HOW +4.0 pts |
| Q3 2:16 | False Start on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:54 | Delay of Game on Howard, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Indiana’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:56 | Indiana converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% IU | HOW: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:16 | Indiana converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedIndiana missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +0% IU | IU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 3:39 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% IU | HOW: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 0:38 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% IU | HOW: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:15 | Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% IU | IU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:06 | Howard converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% IU | HOW: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 10:57 | Howard was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% IU | HOW: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Howard 0% · Indiana 100%
- Final margin
- Indiana by 55
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for Indiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Indiana by 45.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Howard 0% · Indiana 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Howard · 
Indiana
More from Week 2 2026
- Duke at Illinois DUKE 31–27 · replay 25% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Utah State at Washington WASH 16–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rutgers at Boston College BC 28–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Penn State at Temple PSU 27–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Purdue WAKE 38–36 · replay 65% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- San Diego State at UCLA UCLA 28–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Maryland at UConn MD 38–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Wisconsin WIS 36–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner