Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 24–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:43 left): Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 14, worth 9 points of win probability to Middle Tennessee.
Final
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 16 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Kennesaw State lucky · −36 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 4, Kennesaw State wins 6.
- 1 MTSU 45 KENN 24
- 2 MTSU 27 KENN 14
- 3 MTSU 27 KENN 20
- 4 MTSU 34 KENN 31
- 5 MTSU 28 KENN 31
- 6 MTSU 28 KENN 34
- 7 MTSU 14 KENN 23
- 8 MTSU 28 KENN 41
- 9 MTSU 14 KENN 34
- 10 MTSU 14 KENN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Middle Tennessee wins 36% of them, Kennesaw State 64%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 9.1% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 15.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 20.3% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 24.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- B. Williams, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
- D. Kinney, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Middle Tennessee 6 for 55 yards, Kennesaw State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:12 | Ineligible Downfield on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards | +2% KENN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 11:52 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +3% KENN +1.9 pts |
| Q1 6:16 | Face Mask on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +2% MTSU +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:32 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KENN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:54 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% KENN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 2:47 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +1% KENN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:58 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +3% KENN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:07 | False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:25 | Illegal Substitution on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:24 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +4% MTSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:04 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and Kennesaw State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% KENN | MTSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:17 | Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% MTSU | MTSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 10:58 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:39 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% KENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:24 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 7:43 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +9% MTSU | MTSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 5:19 | Middle Tennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% MTSU | MTSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 4:30 | Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% KENN | MTSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Middle Tennessee 1% · Kennesaw State 99%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for Middle Tennessee
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Middle Tennessee 36% · Kennesaw State 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Middle Tennessee · 
Kennesaw State
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisiana Tech at UTEP LT 30–11 · replay 47% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Missouri State WKU 27–22 · replay 55% for the winner
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- Liberty at Old Dominion ODU 21–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner