Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Campbell at East Carolina, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Campbell 56–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Campbell Fighting Camels | 3 |
|---|---|
 East Carolina Pirates | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 East Carolina about even · 0 Campbell
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Campbell wins 0, East Carolina wins 10.
- 1 CAM 9 ECU 20
- 2 CAM 0 ECU 21
- 3 CAM 7 ECU 31
- 4 CAM 7 ECU 35
- 5 CAM 13 ECU 45
- 6 CAM 3 ECU 38
- 7 CAM 3 ECU 42
- 8 CAM 10 ECU 52
- 9 CAM 3 ECU 52
- 10 CAM 0 ECU 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Campbell wins 0% of them, East Carolina 100%. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 53.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Campbell by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Campbell by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Campbell by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| East Carolina by 17+ | 95.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Campbell 3 for 25 yards, East Carolina 8 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:26 | Personal Foul on Campbell, 15 yards | 0% ECU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:48 | Face Mask on East Carolina, 12 yards | 0% CAM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:41 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:15 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CAM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | Personal Foul on East Carolina, 12 yards | 0% CAM +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:53 | Illegal Formation on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Offside on Campbell, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:05 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAM +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:29 | Illegal Formation on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAM +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:51 | Illegal Snap on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:01 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAM +1.6 pts |
When it happened
East Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:24 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:31 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:51 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:34 | Campbell converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% CAM | CAM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:10 | Campbell converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% CAM | CAM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 14:48 | Face Mask on East Carolina, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% CAM | CAM: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:02 | Campbell was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% ECU | CAM: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 12:05 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +0% ECU | ECU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Campbell 0% · East Carolina 100%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 53
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 49.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Campbell 0% · East Carolina 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Campbell · 
East Carolina
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner