Week 3 2026 · September 17, 2026
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Pittsburgh beat Syracuse 27–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Syracuse Orange | 13 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Panthers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Pittsburgh about even · −12 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Syracuse wins 1, Pittsburgh wins 9.
- 1 SYR 16 PITT 10
- 2 SYR 13 PITT 16
- 3 SYR 17 PITT 23
- 4 SYR 13 PITT 21
- 5 SYR 17 PITT 28
- 6 SYR 17 PITT 31
- 7 SYR 14 PITT 31
- 8 SYR 7 PITT 28
- 9 SYR 19 PITT 45
- 10 SYR 9 PITT 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Syracuse wins 12% of them, Pittsburgh 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Pittsburgh by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Pittsburgh by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Pittsburgh by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Pittsburgh by 17+ | 46.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Woody, 29 yds missed · 88% expected
- A. Chadha, 42 yds made · 70% expected
- S. Barker, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- A. Chadha, 34 yds made · 83% expected
- S. Barker, 30 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Syracuse 9 for 79 yards, Pittsburgh 8 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +3% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:25 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | +2% PITT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:11 | Holding on Syracuse, 7 yards | +1% PITT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 1:26 | Holding on Syracuse, 9 yards | +1% PITT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | False Start on Syracuse, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% PITT +0.3 pts |
| Q2 13:21 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | +3% PITT +2.2 pts |
| Q2 13:17 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 15 yards | +1% PITT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:30 | Roughing the Passer on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | +1% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q2 8:15 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:14 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 2 yards | +3% SYR +3.1 pts |
| Q2 1:05 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 4 yards | +1% PITT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:01 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.1 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards | 0% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:13 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards | 0% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:56 | Illegal Return on Syracuse, 5 yards | 0% PITT +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Pittsburgh’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Pittsburgh, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SYR | SYR: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:38 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% SYR | SYR: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 6:42 | Syracuse was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% PITT | SYR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:48 | Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 13:21 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% PITT | PITT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 10:28 | T. Woody missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +3% PITT | SYR: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 4:14 | Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:35 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% PITT | SYR: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Syracuse 4% · Pittsburgh 96%
- Final margin
- Pittsburgh by 14
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Pittsburgh
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Pittsburgh by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Syracuse 12% · Pittsburgh 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Syracuse · 
Pittsburgh
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Maine at Boston College BC 22–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Mercer at Georgia Tech GT 44–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- Stanford at Duke DUKE 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wagner at California CAL 49–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner