Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Nicholls at Sam Houston, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Sam Houston beat Nicholls 59–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Sam Houston wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Sam Houston was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Nicholls Colonels | 0 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Sam Houston about even · 0 Nicholls
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nicholls wins 0, Sam Houston wins 10.
- 1 NICH 10 SHSU 33
- 2 NICH 14 SHSU 45
- 3 NICH 10 SHSU 48
- 4 NICH 0 SHSU 41
- 5 NICH 7 SHSU 51
- 6 NICH 0 SHSU 48
- 7 NICH 3 SHSU 54
- 8 NICH 0 SHSU 55
- 9 NICH 3 SHSU 63
- 10 NICH 0 SHSU 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nicholls wins 0% of them, Sam Houston 100%. The line is what actually happened: Sam Houston by 59.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nicholls by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Nicholls by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Nicholls by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 97.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Carpenter, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- S. Carpenter, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
Penalties: Nicholls 7 for 66 yards, Sam Houston 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:04 | Offside on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NICH +2.5 pts |
| Q1 13:55 | Holding on Nicholls, 10 yards | +2% SHSU +2.3 pts |
| Q1 7:26 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% NICH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:10 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NICH +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:39 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% SHSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:59 | Holding on Nicholls, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SHSU +2.4 pts |
| Q1 1:07 | Pass Interference on Nicholls, 16 yards | 0% SHSU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 8:35 | Offside on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NICH +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:21 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sam Houston, 15 yards | 0% NICH +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:59 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% NICH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | False Start on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:40 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:20 | Offside on Nicholls, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SHSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 1:08 | Face Mask on Nicholls, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:45 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NICH +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:04 | Nicholls was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedOffside on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% NICH | NICH: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:55 | Holding on Nicholls, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% SHSU | SHSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 12:22 | Nicholls was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% SHSU | NICH: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:55 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 9:13 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +1% NICH | SHSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 7:10 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedFalse Start on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% NICH | SHSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 2:59 | Holding on Nicholls, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 14:56 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% NICH | SHSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nicholls 0% · Sam Houston 100%
- Final margin
- Sam Houston by 59
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Sam Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sam Houston by 51.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Nicholls 0% · Sam Houston 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Nicholls · 
Sam Houston
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SELA 38–35 · replay 28% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- East Texas A&M at Tulsa TLSA 42–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Ball State at Liberty LIB 51–15 · replay 100% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Indiana IU 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner