luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

East Tennessee State at Tennessee, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat East Tennessee State 72–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 100% favorite.

Final

East Tennessee State Buccaneers 17
Tennessee Volunteers 72

September 6, 2025 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −40.5

Luck index 0 Tennessee about even · 0 East Tennessee State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. East Tennessee State wins 0, Tennessee wins 10.

  1. 1 ETSU 7 TENN 35
  2. 2 ETSU 6 TENN 45
  3. 3 ETSU 16 TENN 62
  4. 4 ETSU 3 TENN 52
  5. 5 ETSU 6 TENN 59
  6. 6 ETSU 10 TENN 66
  7. 7 ETSU 7 TENN 66
  8. 8 ETSU 7 TENN 70
  9. 9 ETSU 0 TENN 69
  10. 10 ETSU 3 TENN 78

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

East Tennessee State wins 0% of them, Tennessee 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 55.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
East Tennessee State by 17+0.0%
East Tennessee State by 9–160.0%
East Tennessee State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Tennessee by 1–80.1%
Tennessee by 9–160.7%
Tennessee by 17+99.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.9 points to Tennessee: the final margin was Tennessee by 55, without the luck Tennessee by 42.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Gilbert, 29 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 37 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. Johnson, 41 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Gilbert, 53 yds made · 50% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: East Tennessee State 8 for 78 yards, Tennessee 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% ETSU +0.6 pts
Q1 12:48 Illegal Formation on East Tennessee State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% TENN +3.4 pts
Q1 8:41 Delay of Game on East Tennessee State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.4 pts
Q1 7:07 False Start on East Tennessee State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.8 pts
Q1 2:11 Delay of Game on East Tennessee State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN 0.0 pts
Q2 12:13 Holding on East Tennessee State, 3 yards 0% TENN +1.8 pts
Q2 8:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Tennessee State, 0 yards 0% TENN 0.0 pts
Q2 8:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Tennessee State, 50 yards 0% TENN +3.1 pts
Q2 6:45 Offside on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ETSU +2.1 pts
Q3 2:37 Holding on East Tennessee State, 10 yards 0% TENN +0.9 pts
Q4 11:55 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ETSU +0.3 pts
Q4 8:05 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ETSU +0.5 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while East Tennessee State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:55 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% ETSU ETSU: Punt
2 Q1 13:08 Tennessee converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% TENN TENN: Field goal
3 Q1 12:48 Illegal Formation on East Tennessee State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +0% TENN TENN: Field goal
4 Q1 12:20 East Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% TENN ETSU: Punt
5 Q1 10:07 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% TENN TENN: Field goal
6 Q1 8:42 East Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedEast Tennessee State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% ETSU ETSU: Punt
7 Q1 6:33 East Tennessee State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% TENN ETSU: Punt
8 Q1 4:10 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% ETSU TENN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

East Tennessee State 0% · Tennessee 100%

Final margin
Tennessee by 55
Luck in points
12.9 for Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 42.1
Replay with same day's form
East Tennessee State 0% · Tennessee 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · East Tennessee State · Tennessee

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