Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Arkansas State vs Arkansas, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas beat Arkansas State 56–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arkansas was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 14 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Arkansas about even · 0 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 0, Arkansas wins 10.
- 1 ARST 10 ARK 44
- 2 ARST 21 ARK 63
- 3 ARST 10 ARK 56
- 4 ARST 10 ARK 59
- 5 ARST 10 ARK 63
- 6 ARST 7 ARK 63
- 7 ARST 0 ARK 59
- 8 ARST 3 ARK 66
- 9 ARST 0 ARK 65
- 10 ARST 7 ARK 77
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas State wins 0% of them, Arkansas 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 98.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Arkansas State 7 for 56 yards, Arkansas 8 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:50 | Illegal Motion on Arkansas, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% ARST +1.3 pts |
| Q1 8:59 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 12 yards | 0% ARK +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:05 | Illegal Use of Hands on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:56 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% ARST +2.3 pts |
| Q1 3:56 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% ARST +1.1 pts |
| Q1 3:56 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:54 | Personal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ARK +5.8 pts |
| Q2 10:30 | Holding on Arkansas, 3 yards | +1% ARST +3.0 pts |
| Q2 10:30 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARK +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 9 yards | +1% ARK +1.1 pts |
| Q3 13:30 | Personal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% ARK +2.2 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ARK +2.0 pts |
| Q4 14:08 | Holding on Arkansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ARST +6.0 pts |
| Q4 10:32 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Penalty on Arkansas State, 0 yards | 0% ARK +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:21 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +0% ARST | ARST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:50 | Illegal Motion on Arkansas, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +4% ARST | ARST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:59 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedArkansas State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +1% ARST | ARST: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:54 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 12% expectedPersonal Foul on Arkansas State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% ARK | ARST: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 10:30 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedArkansas State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Arkansas, 3 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:30 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedPersonal Foul on Arkansas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas State 0% · Arkansas 100%
- Final margin
- Arkansas by 42
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for Arkansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 41.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas State 0% · Arkansas 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Arkansas State · 
Arkansas
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