College football · Week 9 2026 · Tuesday, October 27
Sam Houston vs Missouri State prediction and pick
Our Sam Houston Bearkats at Missouri State Bears pick: Missouri State by 3.7, 59% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Sam Houston vs Missouri State: questions and answers
Who will win Sam Houston vs Missouri State?
Our forecast picks Missouri State, with 59% to win; Sam Houston win 41% of the time.
What’s the spread for Sam Houston vs Missouri State?
Our spread: Missouri State −3.7. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Sam Houston vs Missouri State?
Tuesday, October 27, 2026, at 8:00 pm ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Sam Houston at 
Missouri State
