College football · Week 9 2026 · Wednesday, October 28
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee prediction and pick
Our Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders pick: Kennesaw State by 2.5, 56% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Kennesaw State by 2.5 · 56% to win
Ours: Kennesaw State by 2.5Kennesaw State win 56%Middle Tennessee win 44%494235282114707142128354249← Kennesaw State win byMiddle Tennessee win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Kennesaw State win
55.9%
Middle Tennessee win
44.1%
Middle 50%: Kennesaw State by 14 to Middle Tennessee by 8
50%
Middle 90%: Kennesaw State by 30 to Middle Tennessee by 25
90%
Middle 95%: Kennesaw State by 35 to Middle Tennessee by 31
95%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 3
6.7%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 3
6.3%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 7
5.2%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 7
4.6%
Exactly Kennesaw State by 14
3.3%
P50
Half of games like this end between Kennesaw State by 14 and Middle Tennessee by 8.
P90
9 in 10 between Kennesaw State by 30 and Middle Tennessee by 25.
P95
19 in 20 between Kennesaw State by 35 and Middle Tennessee by 31.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee: questions and answers
Who will win Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee?
Our forecast picks Kennesaw State, with 56% to win; Middle Tennessee win 44% of the time.
What’s the spread for Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee?
Our spread: Kennesaw State −2.5. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 7:00 pm ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Kennesaw State at 
Middle Tennessee
