College football · Week 9 2026 · Wednesday, October 28
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State prediction and pick
Our Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies pick: Jacksonville State by 5.8, 64% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Jacksonville State by 5.8Jacksonville State win 64%New Mexico State win 36%5649423528211470714212835424956← Jacksonville State win byNew Mexico State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Jacksonville State win
63.6%
New Mexico State win
36.4%
Middle 50%: Jacksonville State by 17 to New Mexico State by 6
50%
Middle 90%: Jacksonville State by 34 to New Mexico State by 21
90%
Middle 95%: Jacksonville State by 38 to New Mexico State by 27
95%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 3
6.6%
Exactly New Mexico State by 3
5.8%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 7
5.4%
Exactly New Mexico State by 7
4.0%
Exactly Jacksonville State by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Jacksonville State by 17 and New Mexico State by 6.
P90
9 in 10 between Jacksonville State by 34 and New Mexico State by 21.
P95
19 in 20 between Jacksonville State by 38 and New Mexico State by 27.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State: questions and answers
Who will win Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State?
Our forecast picks Jacksonville State, with 64% to win; New Mexico State win 36% of the time.
What’s the spread for Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State?
Our spread: Jacksonville State −5.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State?
Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 8:00 pm ET, at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Jacksonville State at 
New Mexico State
