College football · Week 9 2026 · Saturday, October 31
Florida International vs Liberty prediction and pick
Our Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames pick: Liberty by 11.4, 75% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 5 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.8, so about 52% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Liberty by 11.4Florida International win 25%Liberty win 75%5649423528211470714212835424956← Florida International win byLiberty win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Florida International win
24.6%
Liberty win
75.4%
Middle 50%: Liberty by 1 to Liberty by 23
50%
Middle 90%: Florida International by 17 to Liberty by 39
90%
Middle 95%: Florida International by 21 to Liberty by 45
95%
Exactly Liberty by 3
5.9%
Exactly Liberty by 7
5.2%
Exactly Florida International by 3
4.6%
Exactly Liberty by 14
4.2%
Exactly Liberty by 17
3.9%
P50
Half of games like this end between Liberty by 1 and Liberty by 23.
P90
9 in 10 between Florida International by 17 and Liberty by 39.
P95
19 in 20 between Florida International by 21 and Liberty by 45.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Florida International vs Liberty: questions and answers
Who will win Florida International vs Liberty?
Our forecast picks Liberty, with 75% to win; Florida International win 25% of the time.
What’s the spread for Florida International vs Liberty?
Our spread: Liberty −11.4. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Florida International vs Liberty?
Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 3:30 pm ET, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Florida International at 
Liberty
