College football · Week 8 2026 · Wednesday, October 21
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston prediction and pick
Our New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats pick: Sam Houston by 5.8, 64% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 pm ET · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Sam Houston by 5.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Sam Houston by 5.8New Mexico State win 36%Sam Houston win 64%5649423528211470714212835424956← New Mexico State win bySam Houston win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
New Mexico State win
36.3%
Sam Houston win
63.7%
Middle 50%: New Mexico State by 6 to Sam Houston by 17
50%
Middle 90%: New Mexico State by 21 to Sam Houston by 33
90%
Middle 95%: New Mexico State by 27 to Sam Houston by 38
95%
Exactly Sam Houston by 3
6.6%
Exactly New Mexico State by 3
5.9%
Exactly Sam Houston by 7
5.4%
Exactly New Mexico State by 7
4.0%
Exactly Sam Houston by 14
3.8%
P50
Half of games like this end between New Mexico State by 6 and Sam Houston by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between New Mexico State by 21 and Sam Houston by 33.
P95
19 in 20 between New Mexico State by 27 and Sam Houston by 38.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston: questions and answers
Who will win New Mexico State vs Sam Houston?
Our forecast picks Sam Houston, with 64% to win; New Mexico State win 36% of the time.
What’s the spread for New Mexico State vs Sam Houston?
Our spread: Sam Houston −5.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is New Mexico State vs Sam Houston?
Wednesday, October 21, 2026, at 8:00 pm ET, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
New Mexico State at 
Sam Houston
