College football · Week 8 2026 · Tuesday, October 20
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International prediction and pick
Our Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Florida International Panthers pick: Florida International by 7.3, 67% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 4 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.6, so about 53% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Florida International by 7.3Middle Tennessee win 33%Florida International win 67%5649423528211470714212835424956← Middle Tennessee win byFlorida International win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Middle Tennessee win
32.8%
Florida International win
67.2%
Middle 50%: Middle Tennessee by 3 to Florida International by 18
50%
Middle 90%: Middle Tennessee by 20 to Florida International by 35
90%
Middle 95%: Middle Tennessee by 25 to Florida International by 40
95%
Exactly Florida International by 3
6.5%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 3
5.5%
Exactly Florida International by 7
5.4%
Exactly Florida International by 14
3.9%
Exactly Middle Tennessee by 7
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Middle Tennessee by 3 and Florida International by 18.
P90
9 in 10 between Middle Tennessee by 20 and Florida International by 35.
P95
19 in 20 between Middle Tennessee by 25 and Florida International by 40.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International: questions and answers
Who will win Middle Tennessee vs Florida International?
Our forecast picks Florida International, with 67% to win; Middle Tennessee win 33% of the time.
What’s the spread for Middle Tennessee vs Florida International?
Our spread: Florida International −7.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Middle Tennessee vs Florida International?
Tuesday, October 20, 2026, at 7:00 pm ET, at Pitbull Stadium.
Middle Tennessee at 
Florida International
