College football · Week 13 2026 · Saturday, November 28
Sam Houston vs Florida International prediction and pick
Our Sam Houston Bearkats at Florida International Panthers pick: Florida International by 5.8, 63% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 9 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: Florida International by 5.8Sam Houston win 37%Florida International win 63%5649423528211470714212835424956← Sam Houston win byFlorida International win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Sam Houston win
36.7%
Florida International win
63.3%
Middle 50%: Sam Houston by 6 to Florida International by 17
50%
Middle 90%: Sam Houston by 22 to Florida International by 34
90%
Middle 95%: Sam Houston by 28 to Florida International by 39
95%
Exactly Florida International by 3
6.5%
Exactly Sam Houston by 3
5.7%
Exactly Florida International by 7
5.3%
Exactly Sam Houston by 7
4.0%
Exactly Florida International by 14
3.7%
P50
Half of games like this end between Sam Houston by 6 and Florida International by 17.
P90
9 in 10 between Sam Houston by 22 and Florida International by 34.
P95
19 in 20 between Sam Houston by 28 and Florida International by 39.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Sam Houston vs Florida International: questions and answers
Who will win Sam Houston vs Florida International?
Our forecast picks Florida International, with 63% to win; Sam Houston win 37% of the time.
What’s the spread for Sam Houston vs Florida International?
Our spread: Florida International −5.8. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Sam Houston vs Florida International?
Saturday, November 28, 2026, at 2:00 pm ET, at Pitbull Stadium.
Sam Houston at 
Florida International
