Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
East Texas A&M at Florida State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Florida State beat East Texas A&M 77–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida State was a 100% favorite.
Final
 East Texas A&M Lions | 3 |
|---|---|
 Florida State Seminoles | 77 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Florida State about even · 0 East Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Texas A&M wins 0, Florida State wins 10.
- 1 ETAM 12 FSU 31
- 2 ETAM 17 FSU 45
- 3 ETAM 24 FSU 58
- 4 ETAM 10 FSU 48
- 5 ETAM 7 FSU 49
- 6 ETAM 20 FSU 65
- 7 ETAM 7 FSU 56
- 8 ETAM 7 FSU 61
- 9 ETAM 10 FSU 69
- 10 ETAM 3 FSU 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Texas A&M wins 0% of them, Florida State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Florida State by 74.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Texas A&M by 17+ | 0.0% |
| East Texas A&M by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| East Texas A&M by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Florida State by 17+ | 96.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: East Texas A&M 7 for 55 yards, Florida State 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:30 | Personal Foul on East Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% FSU +3.2 pts |
| Q1 8:20 | Offside on East Texas A&M, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 6:27 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:09 | Holding on East Texas A&M, 10 yards | 0% FSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:55 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:30 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ETAM +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:30 | Roughing the Passer on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% ETAM +1.7 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Illegal Substitution on East Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Personal Foul on East Texas A&M, 15 yards | 0% FSU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida State, 15 yards | 0% ETAM +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Florida State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | East Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% FSU | ETAM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:01 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% ETAM | FSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:30 | Personal Foul on East Texas A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:51 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +0% ETAM | FSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:20 | Offside on East Texas A&M, 0 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 8:14 | Florida State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 6:27 | Delay of Game on East Texas A&M, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% FSU | FSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 5:33 | East Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% FSU | ETAM: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Texas A&M 0% · Florida State 100%
- Final margin
- Florida State by 74
- Luck in points
- 13.4 for Florida State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 60.6
- Replay with same day's form
- East Texas A&M 0% · Florida State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
East Texas A&M · 
Florida State
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech VAN 44–20 · replay 100% for the winner