Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Oklahoma State at Oregon, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Oklahoma State 69–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 3 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma State wins 0, Oregon wins 10.
- 1 OKST 6 ORE 31
- 2 OKST 7 ORE 42
- 3 OKST 3 ORE 42
- 4 OKST 7 ORE 50
- 5 OKST 7 ORE 52
- 6 OKST 3 ORE 52
- 7 OKST 0 ORE 52
- 8 OKST 3 ORE 59
- 9 OKST 10 ORE 70
- 10 OKST 0 ORE 69
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma State wins 0% of them, Oregon 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 66.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 95.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Ward, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- A. Sappington, 57 yds missed · 44% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma State 8 for 45 yards, Oregon 6 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:54 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:07 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | 0% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +1.7 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | Illegal Shift on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:58 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:08 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:34 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:48 | False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:11 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | 0% ORE +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:57 | Ineligible Downfield on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORE +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:05 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OKST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Offside on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% ORE | OKST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:24 | Oregon’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% OKST | ORE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:29 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% OKST | ORE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 7:47 | Oklahoma State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% ORE | OKST: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:35 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% OKST | OKST: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 1:23 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% OKST | OKST: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 13:30 | Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% OKST | OKST: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 3:57 | Ineligible Downfield on Oklahoma State, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma State 0% · Oregon 100%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 66
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Oklahoma State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 67.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma State 0% · Oregon 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Oklahoma State · 
Oregon
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner