Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 20 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Weber State at Arizona, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona beat Weber State 48–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arizona was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Weber State Wildcats | 3 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Wildcats | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Arizona about even · 0 Weber State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Weber State wins 0, Arizona wins 10.
- 1 WEB 3 ARIZ 14
- 2 WEB 0 ARIZ 17
- 3 WEB 0 ARIZ 21
- 4 WEB 6 ARIZ 31
- 5 WEB 3 ARIZ 31
- 6 WEB 0 ARIZ 31
- 7 WEB 0 ARIZ 34
- 8 WEB 7 ARIZ 42
- 9 WEB 0 ARIZ 41
- 10 WEB 0 ARIZ 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Weber State wins 0% of them, Arizona 100%. The line is what actually happened: Arizona by 45.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Weber State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Weber State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Weber State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arizona by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Arizona by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Arizona by 17+ | 92.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Salgado-Medina, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- M. Salgado-Medina, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- S. Calder, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
- T. Prasuhn, 39 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Weber State 8 for 63 yards, Arizona 10 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:09 | False Start on Weber State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ 0.0 pts |
| Q1 9:09 | False Start on Weber State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q1 7:50 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% WEB 0.0 pts |
| Q1 7:50 | Holding on Arizona, 5 yards | 0% WEB +0.3 pts |
| Q1 5:16 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% WEB +0.1 pts |
| Q1 5:08 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WEB +3.6 pts |
| Q1 2:54 | False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WEB 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:54 | False Start on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WEB +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:06 | Holding on Weber State, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ 0.0 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Holding on Weber State, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ +0.2 pts |
| Q2 9:58 | Pass Interference on Weber State, 5 yards | 0% ARIZ 0.0 pts |
| Q2 9:53 | Pass Interference on Weber State, 5 yards | 0% ARIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:05 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% WEB 0.0 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards | 0% WEB +1.3 pts |
| Q2 7:07 | Holding on Weber State, 10 yards | 0% ARIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:26 | Offside on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WEB +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:38 | Illegal Substitution on Arizona, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WEB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:20 | Face Mask on Weber State, 13 yards | +1% ARIZ +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Arizona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:11 | Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedWeber State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +0% ARIZ | WEB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:09 | False Start on Weber State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Weber State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:05 | Weber State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedWeber State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +0% ARIZ | WEB: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:08 | Holding on Arizona, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% WEB | WEB: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 4:55 | Arizona was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedArizona was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% WEB | ARIZ: Field goal |
| 6 | Q1 4:15 | M. Salgado-Medina made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +0% ARIZ | ARIZ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:07 | Holding on Weber State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ARIZ | ARIZ: End of half |
| 8 | Q4 9:20 | Face Mask on Weber State, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ARIZ | ARIZ: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Weber State 0% · Arizona 100%
- Final margin
- Arizona by 45
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for Arizona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona by 39.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Weber State 0% · Arizona 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 20 of the 51 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Weber State · 
Arizona
More from Week 2 2025
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- Sacramento State at Nevada NEV 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Idaho State at New Mexico UNM 32–22 · replay 84% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- West Virginia at Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner
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