Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Bethune-Cookman at Miami, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Bethune-Cookman 45–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats | 3 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Miami about even · 0 Bethune-Cookman
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bethune-Cookman wins 0, Miami wins 10.
- 1 BCU 24 MIA 38
- 2 BCU 17 MIA 38
- 3 BCU 7 MIA 35
- 4 BCU 10 MIA 41
- 5 BCU 7 MIA 42
- 6 BCU 6 MIA 42
- 7 BCU 0 MIA 42
- 8 BCU 6 MIA 49
- 9 BCU 0 MIA 48
- 10 BCU 7 MIA 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bethune-Cookman wins 0% of them, Miami 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bethune-Cookman by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Bethune-Cookman by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Bethune-Cookman by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Miami by 17+ | 98.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Dominguez, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Auburn, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Bethune-Cookman 2 for 20 yards, Miami 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:19 | Targeting on Miami, 15 yards | 0% BCU +3.5 pts |
| Q1 9:16 | False Start on Bethune-Cookman, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:14 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% BCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:18 | Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards | 0% BCU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 6:14 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% BCU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 5:05 | Targeting on Bethune-Cookman, 15 yards | 0% MIA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:53 | Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% MIA | BCU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:49 | Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% MIA | BCU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:49 | Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +0% MIA | BCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:12 | Bethune-Cookman was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% MIA | BCU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:10 | Miami converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:00 | Miami converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 15:00 | Miami converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:51 | Bethune-Cookman converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +0% MIA | BCU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bethune-Cookman 0% · Miami 100%
- Final margin
- Miami by 42
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 34.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bethune-Cookman 0% · Miami 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Bethune-Cookman · 
Miami
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jackson State at Southern Miss USM 38–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Stanford at BYU BYU 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Florida A&M at Florida Atlantic FAU 56–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- Texas Southern at California CAL 35–3 · replay 99% for the winner