Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Utah at Baylor, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Baylor 55–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:11 left): Return touchdown by Utah, worth 12 points of win probability to Utah.
Final
 Utah Utes | 55 |
|---|---|
 Baylor Bears | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Utah about even · −15 Baylor
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah wins 8, Baylor wins 2.
- 1 UTAH 67 BAY 23
- 2 UTAH 52 BAY 21
- 3 UTAH 49 BAY 23
- 4 UTAH 63 BAY 41
- 5 UTAH 42 BAY 24
- 6 UTAH 34 BAY 20
- 7 UTAH 44 BAY 34
- 8 UTAH 28 BAY 24
- 9 UTAH 42 BAY 45
- 10 UTAH 21 BAY 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah wins 85% of them, Baylor 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah by 17+ | 50.7% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Baylor by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 41 yds missed · 72% expected
- C. Hawkins, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Hawkins, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Utah 3 for 39 yards, Baylor 5 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:08 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:13 | Pass Interference on Utah, 10 yards | +3% BAY +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:10 | Illegal Shift on Baylor, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +1.4 pts |
| Q2 9:46 | Delay of Game on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:40 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:30 | Pass Interference on Utah, 14 yards | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:08 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | 0% BAY +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Baylor’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:46 | Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +2% UTAH | BAY: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:01 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% BAY | UTAH: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:57 | Baylor converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% BAY | BAY: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 9:57 | C. Hawkins missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him | +3% UTAH | BAY: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 9:08 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +2% BAY | UTAH: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:13 | Pass Interference on Utah, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 0:11 | Return touchdown by UtahSpecial teams | +12% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:26 | Baylor converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +4% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah 100% · Baylor 0%
- Final margin
- Utah by 27
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 19.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah 85% · Baylor 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Utah · 
Baylor
More from Week 12 2025
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- West Virginia at Arizona State ASU 25–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Arizona at Cincinnati ARIZ 30–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- TCU at BYU BYU 44–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- UCF at Texas Tech TTU 48–9 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner