luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

West Virginia at Arizona State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona State beat West Virginia 25–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Arizona State wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Arizona State.

Before kickoff Arizona State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:44 left): J. Gomez made a 49-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to Arizona State.

Final

West Virginia Mountaineers 23
Arizona State Sun Devils 25

November 15, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium · Closing line: Arizona State −10

Luck index +44 Arizona State lucky · −44 West Virginia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Virginia wins 4, Arizona State wins 6.

  1. 1 WVU 24 ASU 0
  2. 2 WVU 26 ASU 13
  3. 3 WVU 9 ASU 2
  4. 4 WVU 10 ASU 7
  5. 5 WVU 21 ASU 24
  6. 6 WVU 24 ASU 30
  7. 7 WVU 14 ASU 24
  8. 8 WVU 7 ASU 21
  9. 9 WVU 14 ASU 34
  10. 10 WVU 9 ASU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

West Virginia wins 44% of them, Arizona State 56%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
West Virginia by 17+9.3%
West Virginia by 9–1614.3%
West Virginia by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Arizona State by 1–823.2%
Arizona State by 9–1616.0%
Arizona State by 17+15.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Arizona State by 2, without the luck Arizona State by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Hensley, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Gomez, 46 yds blocked · 61% expected
  • J. Gomez, 49 yds made · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: West Virginia 5 for 70 yards, Arizona State 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:54 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WVU +0.5 pts
Q2 5:48 Face Mask on Arizona State, 15 yards +3% WVU +1.6 pts
Q2 1:05 Kick Catch Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards +1% ASU +0.9 pts
Q3 12:52 Illegal Substitution on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WVU +0.1 pts
Q3 7:19 Face Mask on West Virginia, 15 yards +2% ASU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:55 Unnecessary Roughness on West Virginia, 15 yards +1% ASU +1.6 pts
Q4 11:23 Roughing the Passer on Arizona State, 4 yards +2% WVU +1.0 pts
Q4 8:06 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards +5% ASU +1.3 pts
Q4 5:55 Roughing the Passer on West Virginia, 15 yards +9% ASU +1.4 pts

When it happened

Arizona State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona State was ahead in it, below while West Virginia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:18 West Virginia converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% WVU WVU: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 14:12 Arizona State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% ASU ASU: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:50 Arizona State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% ASU ASU: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:06 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% ASU ASU: Field goal
5 Q4 5:55 Roughing the Passer on West Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% ASU ASU: Field goal
6 Q4 4:37 Arizona State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% ASU ASU: Field goal
7 Q4 2:49 Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +12% WVU ASU: Field goal
8 Q4 2:44 J. Gomez made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ before +14% ASU ASU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Virginia 48% · Arizona State 52%

Final margin
Arizona State by 2
Luck in points
1.7 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona State by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
West Virginia 44% · Arizona State 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · West Virginia · Arizona State

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