luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026

Prairie View A&M at Baylor, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?

Baylor beat Prairie View A&M 44–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 99% favorite.

Final

Prairie View A&M Panthers 3
Baylor Bears 44

September 12, 2026 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −37.5

Luck index 0 Baylor about even · 0 Prairie View A&M

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Prairie View A&M wins 0, Baylor wins 10.

  1. 1 PV 0 BAY 35
  2. 2 PV 3 BAY 46
  3. 3 PV 3 BAY 50
  4. 4 PV 0 BAY 52
  5. 5 PV 7 BAY 62
  6. 6 PV 0 BAY 59
  7. 7 PV 0 BAY 62
  8. 8 PV 0 BAY 66
  9. 9 PV 0 BAY 71
  10. 10 PV 0 BAY 77

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Prairie View A&M wins 0% of them, Baylor 100%. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 41.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Prairie View A&M by 17+0.0%
Prairie View A&M by 9–160.0%
Prairie View A&M by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Baylor by 1–80.3%
Baylor by 9–161.3%
Baylor by 17+98.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Baylor: the final margin was Baylor by 41, without the luck Baylor by 36.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Eddins, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 46 yds made · 60% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 45 yds made · 62% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Prairie View A&M 9 for 72 yards, Baylor 9 for 100 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:58 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards 0% PV +3.4 pts
Q1 14:54 False Start on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.9 pts
Q1 8:48 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +2.2 pts
Q1 4:16 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards 0% PV +1.6 pts
Q1 1:33 Delay of Game on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 11:10 Delay of Game on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +1.1 pts
Q2 8:17 Delay of Game on Prairie View A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.1 pts
Q2 0:39 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +0.4 pts
Q3 8:57 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards 0% PV +1.2 pts
Q3 7:53 Personal Foul on Prairie View A&M, 15 yards 0% BAY +0.9 pts
Q3 5:38 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% PV +3.2 pts
Q3 5:19 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +2.0 pts
Q3 1:17 Holding on Prairie View A&M, 10 yards 0% BAY +3.6 pts
Q4 10:15 Face Mask on Prairie View A&M, 8 yards 0% BAY +1.7 pts
Q4 10:02 Encroachment on Prairie View A&M, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.4 pts
Q4 7:00 Illegal Block on Baylor, 25 yards 0% PV +2.3 pts
Q4 5:43 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PV +1.0 pts
Q4 0:13 Face Mask on Prairie View A&M, 15 yards 0% BAY +1.6 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Prairie View A&M was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:58 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% PV PV: Field goal
2 Q1 13:44 Prairie View A&M converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% PV PV: Field goal
3 Q1 12:12 Prairie View A&M converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% PV PV: Field goal
4 Q1 10:58 E. Eddins made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +0% BAY PV: Punt
5 Q1 8:48 False Start on Baylor, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% PV PV: Punt
6 Q1 8:25 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% PV BAY: Field goal
7 Q1 8:20 R. Armstrong made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown
8 Q1 4:22 Baylor converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +0% BAY BAY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Prairie View A&M 0% · Baylor 100%

Final margin
Baylor by 41
Luck in points
4.7 for Baylor
Luck-adjusted margin
Baylor by 36.3
Replay with same day's form
Prairie View A&M 0% · Baylor 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · Prairie View A&M · Baylor

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