luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 62 of the 72 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Baylor at Oklahoma State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 91% favorite.

Final

Baylor Bears 45
Oklahoma State Cowboys 27

September 27, 2025 · Boone Pickens Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −21

Luck index +6 Baylor about even · −6 Oklahoma State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Baylor wins 9, Oklahoma State wins 1.

  1. 1 BAY 65 OKST 13
  2. 2 BAY 54 OKST 13
  3. 3 BAY 48 OKST 13
  4. 4 BAY 44 OKST 14
  5. 5 BAY 51 OKST 24
  6. 6 BAY 35 OKST 14
  7. 7 BAY 49 OKST 34
  8. 8 BAY 34 OKST 24
  9. 9 BAY 24 OKST 20
  10. 10 BAY 35 OKST 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Baylor wins 94% of them, Oklahoma State 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Baylor by 17+72.3%
Baylor by 9–1613.1%
Baylor by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Oklahoma State by 1–83.4%
Oklahoma State by 9–160.9%
Oklahoma State by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Oklahoma State: the final margin was Baylor by 18, without the luck Baylor by 19.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Ward, 39 yds made · 75% expected
  • L. Ward, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Hawkins, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Baylor 7 for 101 yards, Oklahoma State 8 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:34 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards +2% OKST +1.6 pts
Q1 0:46 Offside on Oklahoma State, 15 yards · pre-snap +1% BAY +1.6 pts
Q1 0:09 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 16 yards +1% BAY +1.7 pts
Q2 11:49 Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards +1% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 9:07 Holding on Baylor, 0 yards 0% OKST +0.7 pts
Q2 5:03 Personal Foul on Oklahoma State, 15 yards +1% BAY +1.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Holding on Baylor, 21 yards +2% OKST +1.3 pts
Q3 14:40 Holding on Oklahoma State, 0 yards +1% BAY +0.7 pts
Q3 9:29 False Start on Oklahoma State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.7 pts
Q3 8:12 Intentional Grounding on Baylor, 50 yards +2% OKST +3.1 pts
Q4 11:57 Holding on Baylor, 5 yards 0% OKST +0.3 pts
Q4 10:21 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% OKST +0.6 pts
Q4 9:57 Holding on Baylor, 0 yards 0% OKST 0.0 pts
Q4 6:46 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 15 yards 0% BAY +1.6 pts
Q4 6:41 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 14 yards 0% BAY +1.6 pts

When it happened

Oklahoma State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oklahoma State was ahead in it, below while Baylor was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:13 Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +1% OKST BAY: Punt
2 Q1 3:34 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% OKST OKST: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:49 Oklahoma State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% BAY OKST: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:09 Pass Interference on Oklahoma State, 16 yardsJudgment calls +1% BAY BAY: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:02 C. Hawkins missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +4% OKST BAY: Touchdown
6 Q3 15:00 Holding on Baylor, 21 yardsJudgment calls +2% OKST OKST: Punt
7 Q3 8:12 Intentional Grounding on Baylor, 50 yardsJudgment calls +2% OKST OKST: Punt
8 Q4 14:13 Oklahoma State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% OKST OKST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Baylor 100% · Oklahoma State 0%

Final margin
Baylor by 18
Luck in points
1.8 for Oklahoma State
Luck-adjusted margin
Baylor by 19.8
Replay with same day's form
Baylor 94% · Oklahoma State 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 62 of the 72 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Baylor · Oklahoma State

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