Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Utah at West Virginia, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat West Virginia 48–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:16 left): Utah converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to Utah.
Final
 Utah Utes | 48 |
|---|---|
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Utah about even · −3 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah wins 10, West Virginia wins 0.
- 1 UTAH 45 WVU 0
- 2 UTAH 38 WVU 0
- 3 UTAH 55 WVU 21
- 4 UTAH 38 WVU 10
- 5 UTAH 34 WVU 7
- 6 UTAH 34 WVU 10
- 7 UTAH 31 WVU 10
- 8 UTAH 27 WVU 10
- 9 UTAH 34 WVU 21
- 10 UTAH 28 WVU 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah wins 97% of them, West Virginia 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah by 17+ | 78.3% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 1.7% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| West Virginia by 17+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Curtis, 33 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Curtis, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Utah 3 for 28 yards, West Virginia 6 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on West Virginia, 15 yards | +2% UTAH +1.7 pts |
| Q1 1:27 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | +1% WVU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:52 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | False Start on Utah, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Face Mask on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:59 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% WVU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:53 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% UTAH +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:58 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% UTAH +7.5 pts |
When it happened
West Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:20 | West Virginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% WVU | WVU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 14:03 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% WVU | WVU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 12:25 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% UTAH | WVU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 11:31 | Utah fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% UTAH | UTAH: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 10:28 | Utah converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% UTAH | UTAH: End of half |
| 6 | Q1 7:16 | Utah converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on West Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% UTAH | UTAH: End of half |
| 7 | Q1 0:23 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +2% WVU | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 1:58 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% UTAH | UTAH: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah 100% · West Virginia 0%
- Final margin
- Utah by 34
- Luck in points
- 11.9 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 22.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah 97% · West Virginia 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Utah · 
West Virginia
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner