Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
UCF at Kansas State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Kansas State beat UCF 34–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 65% favorite.
Final
 UCF Knights | 20 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Kansas State about even · −18 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCF wins 2, Kansas State wins 8.
- 1 UCF 31 KSU 17
- 2 UCF 28 KSU 24
- 3 UCF 19 KSU 21
- 4 UCF 21 KSU 27
- 5 UCF 17 KSU 27
- 6 UCF 17 KSU 31
- 7 UCF 10 KSU 28
- 8 UCF 14 KSU 37
- 9 UCF 2 KSU 30
- 10 UCF 16 KSU 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCF wins 18% of them, Kansas State 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas State by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCF by 17+ | 2.0% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 10.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 18.9% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 44.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rodriguez, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- N. Ruelas, 53 yds made · 50% expected
- N. Ruelas, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 48 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: UCF 6 for 45 yards, Kansas State 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:53 | Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:42 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards | +1% UCF +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:41 | Face Mask on Kansas State, 15 yards | 0% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:14 | Face Mask on UCF, 15 yards | 0% KSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:10 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | +1% KSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:35 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:55 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:38 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:20 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:16 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +3% KSU | UCF: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:09 | Kansas State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% UCF | KSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 0:53 | Kansas State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:47 | UCF converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% UCF | UCF: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:52 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% KSU | UCF: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:22 | Kansas State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% KSU | KSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 8:25 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% KSU | KSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCF 17% · Kansas State 83%
- Final margin
- Kansas State by 14
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas State by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- UCF 18% · Kansas State 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
UCF · 
Kansas State
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner