Week 5 2025 · September 26, 2025
TCU at Arizona State, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Arizona State beat TCU 27–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arizona State wins 9 of 10. TCU had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 30 points of win probability to TCU.
Before kickoff Arizona State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:17 left): Pass Interference on TCU, 12 yards, worth 28 points of win probability to Arizona State.
Final
 TCU Horned Frogs | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Arizona State about even · −11 TCU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. TCU wins 1, Arizona State wins 9.
- 1 TCU 30 ASU 23
- 2 TCU 13 ASU 16
- 3 TCU 13 ASU 20
- 4 TCU 12 ASU 23
- 5 TCU 13 ASU 27
- 6 TCU 10 ASU 27
- 7 TCU 7 ASU 28
- 8 TCU 13 ASU 37
- 9 TCU 14 ASU 43
- 10 TCU 3 ASU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
TCU wins 11% of them, Arizona State 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| TCU by 17+ | 1.1% |
| TCU by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| TCU by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Arizona State by 17+ | 54.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Gomez, 46 yds missed · 63% expected
- N. McCashland, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Gomez, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Gomez, 43 yds missed · 68% expected
- J. Gomez, 23 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: TCU 7 for 57 yards, Arizona State 7 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:51 | Holding on Arizona State, 7 yards, wiping out the play | +7% TCU +3.0 pts |
| Q1 6:11 | Illegal Touching on TCU, 5 yards | +4% ASU +2.0 pts |
| Q1 3:11 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Face Mask on TCU, 15 yards | +3% ASU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:24 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 14 yards | +1% TCU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | False Start on TCU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | Holding on TCU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ASU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 12:40 | Delay of Game on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TCU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:02 | Illegal Substitution on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TCU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards | +8% TCU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Pass Interference on TCU, 12 yards | +14% ASU +3.0 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Roughing the Passer on TCU, 4 yards | +14% ASU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:42 | Horse Collar Tackle on TCU, 6 yards | 0% ASU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +26% TCU +4.3 pts |
When it happened
Arizona State’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 13:49 | Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedTCU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% TCU | ASU: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q4 12:16 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedPass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% TCU | ASU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q4 9:07 | TCU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedTCU was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedJ. Gomez missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him | +14% TCU | TCU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 5:42 | Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% TCU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 3:17 | Pass Interference on TCU, 12 yardsJudgment callsRoughing the Passer on TCU, 4 yardsJudgment calls | +28% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:50 | Arizona State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +24% ASU | ASU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:42 | TCU fumbled and Arizona State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Horse Collar Tackle on TCU, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +14% ASU | TCU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:15 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +26% TCU | TCU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
TCU 1% · Arizona State 99%
- Final margin
- Arizona State by 3
- Luck in points
- 14.8 for TCU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona State by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- TCU 11% · Arizona State 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
TCU · 
Arizona State
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner